Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-23 14.870402 18.074447 21.624027 25.823634 30.631281 35.937846 42.211855
2025-11-30 10.546769 14.772032 19.953415 26.665252 35.012954 44.934920 57.491454
2025-12-07 7.680490 12.124953 18.047735 26.281917 37.176600 50.832523 68.949467
2025-12-14 5.994325 10.516546 16.989134 26.528444 39.788417 57.107387 80.917851
2025-12-21 4.403164 8.629681 15.137322 25.296417 40.100553 60.193178 88.731608
2025-12-28 3.646337 7.848534 14.720816 25.953974 42.935658 66.667436 101.206444
2026-01-04 2.990124 7.072752 14.157443 26.258101 45.189811 72.366016 112.799768
2026-01-11 2.497458 6.470645 13.762271 26.729288 47.652065 78.407533 125.056257
2026-01-18 2.137325 6.036983 13.574967 27.478540 50.535265 85.138339 138.504515
2026-01-25 1.697183 5.314368 12.742596 27.024202 51.442125 88.933796 147.811711
2026-02-01 1.417338 4.874526 12.366014 27.295686 53.492085 94.490422 159.849142
2026-02-08 1.153624 4.392771 11.822596 27.188993 54.871040 99.032606 170.491813
2026-02-15 0.874342 3.789523 10.962756 26.474636 55.299430 102.319708 179.721471
2026-02-22 0.745445 3.575161 10.919459 27.333567 58.530231 110.239042 196.402934
2026-03-01 0.572504 3.142811 10.290285 26.942830 59.489770 114.502990 207.541000
2026-03-08 0.463159 2.874217 9.997402 27.194161 61.603421 120.717234 221.916300
2026-03-15 0.322337 2.393176 9.054864 25.938045 60.800259 121.994147 228.442590
2026-03-22 0.269674 2.254944 8.997472 26.608491 63.678443 129.596428 245.363724
2026-03-29 0.216861 2.078583 8.794086 26.918554 65.862255 136.071891 260.626213
2026-04-05 0.177127 1.940274 8.672175 27.398907 68.397919 143.237290 277.211956
2026-04-12 0.149041 1.847520 8.670866 28.162662 71.535728 151.559566 295.928741
2026-04-19 0.108032 1.623622 8.192592 27.699540 72.134089 155.376908 307.212124
2026-04-26 0.084834 1.499839 8.018924 27.976276 74.267751 162.010053 323.397738